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10Y–2Y yield curve today
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year. Below zero, the curve is “inverted”, which has often come before US recessions.
The full 10-year minus 2-year yield curve chart is in Pro, with its whole history, ranges, overlays and alerts, next to 111 other charts.
What it is
FRED series T10Y2Y is published daily from the Federal Reserve Board’s constant-maturity yields. A positive value means longer-term borrowing costs more than shorter-term, the usual state.
Why it matters for liquidity
An inverted curve means markets expect rates to fall in future, often because they expect growth to slow. It also squeezes banks, which borrow short and lend long, and can slow credit. A curve that re-steepens after an inversion has often coincided with the start of easing.
Questions
Is the yield curve inverted now?
On 30 October 2026 the 10-year minus 2-year spread was +0.38 points (not inverted), down 0.12 points on a year earlier.
Does an inverted yield curve predict a recession?
It has come before most US recessions since the 1970s, but with long and varying lags and some false signals, so it’s a warning rather than a forecast.
Related
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Start free trialGeneral information only, not financial advice. Data can be delayed, revised or wrong. Sources and credits.